Saturday, December 28, 2019

Reflection On The Field Of Organizational Psychology

Reflection Before the start of this class I had little experience with research and little knowledge regarding the components of each research approach. Additionally, I had preconceived notions that qualitative research would be my approach of choice because I assumed it was an easier choice so to speak because it did not include numeric data. This course has definitely changed my mind on being open to the other approaches. I have learned that quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods approach all involve a lot of time and effort when it comes to planning, executing, and analyzing. Another thing I learned is that each approach is not interchangeable. Just because an individual is more comfortable with one approach over another, does not mean that approach is most suitable for the issue being researched. Even though I learned a lot from this Research Theory course, there are still opportunities for improvement in certain areas. The areas I would like to see improvement is: knowledge of theories in the field of organizational psychology, becoming more fluent in quantitative, qualitative and mixed methods approach, improvement in writing skills, planning and timing just to name a few. According to Banna, knowing theories by researchers who have paved the way in a specific field of study will be an important part of the research process(Laureate Education, Inc., 2009b). This is an area that will be beneficial to me moving forward in the research process because it givesShow MoreRelatedOrganisational Development And Organizational Development1604 Words   |  7 PagesOD practitioners. The OD article gives Discourse by different persp ectives based on two approaches diagnostic and dialogic organisational development. The Organisational Change article reflects the authors own research spanning 30 years in the field of organisational change. The change article is published in the Journal of Change Management. The author’s work demonstrates organisational change by discussing the six signposts of change. (A), Identification The five belief of change (B) ChangeRead MoreThe Recruitment Process from an Organizational and Applicant Perspective1588 Words   |  7 PagesApplying Organizational Psychology Joy Peoples PSYCH/570/Organizational Psychology June 11, 2012 Introduction The focus of this paper provides a brief examination of the recruiting process from both an organizational, and applicants perspective. This brief overview attempts to explain how organizations use various methods to recruit prospective employees. This paper also explains the methods prospective employees, or applicants use to determine the quality and appropriateness ofRead MoreInternship Reflection Paper : Psychological Associates1712 Words   |  7 PagesInternship Reflection Paper: Psychological Associates During the summer of 2015, I obtained an internship at Psychological Associates. I applied for the Organizational Development Intern position during winter break of 2014. After the assessment and interview process, I was given the opportunity to expand my knowledge in the field. Psychological Associates is located in the heart of Clayton, Missouri where I immediately fell in love with the culture and atmosphere of the company. No matter the organizationRead MoreEthics in Psychology: A Reflection975 Words   |  4 PagesEthics in psychology: Reflection Introduction The study of psychology frequently deals with intimate, personal issues of clients and research subjects, which is why strict guidelines exist regarding the ethical use of private data. Early on in a psychology students career, he or she is urged to abide by specific guidelines governing his or her behavior to ensure that he or she acts in an ethical manner. A student that has a lax attitude about cutting and pasting words from the web will later haveRead MoreLewin’s Three-Stage Model of Planned Change1134 Words   |  5 PagesOrganizations respond to these tensions by engaging in processes of strategic renewal through the implementation of â€Å"planned change† (Spector, 2010). Planned change, according to Cummings and Worley (2009), fundamentally concerns the process of changing organizational behaviors. More specifically, new behaviors must replace old ones or be adapted to or integrated with existing behaviors to enable successful change (Palmer, Dunford, Akin, 20 09; Schein, 1993, 2004). This paper outlines the three stages of Lewin’sRead MoreGraduation Speech On Academic Integrity859 Words   |  4 PagesCourse Reflections The graduate seminar course is a required course for all graduate students to take before they start their graduate program here at Baker College. There are many of different things this course helps students out with from getting them familiar with the online classroom too teaching the students the fundamentals of APA formatting. This course consists of three seminars all each lasting a week that goes over many important details that each graduate student are required to knowRead MoreWho Is A Leader?892 Words   |  4 Pagesfoster growth in self, others, and the field in which the leader is involved. The role of a leader can be extremely complex. Leaders must play many roles simultaneously to hold everyone accountable for their duties, responsibilities, and ensure the success of the program. Reflective inquiry like will cause a leader to grow in their craft. What am I doing that is effective? What am I doing that is ineffective? How can I improve my productivity? â€Å"Reflection can be integrated into the active processRead MoreImplementation Of Implementing Change And Developing Worldwide Rivalry1452 Words   |  6 Pagesfind major changes in short and long run success. Research suggests that failed organizational change initiatives range from one third to as high as 80% of attempted change efforts. (Fisher, 1994; Beer and Nohria, 2000; Higgs and Rowland, 2000). Many researchers effort failed the learning space and supervise the manager in the field of change management. Then came John kotter, who focused on the change management field, specifically his first article was p ublished in 1995 in Harvard Business ReviewRead Moreperformance apprisal research paper1283 Words   |  6 Pageschoosing alternative problem and by open discussion and fair treatment. Hence the researcher suggested that the police commission should applying fair and consistence of appraisal and motivational mechanisms could influence employees’ performance, organizational commitment and who are not satisfied with performance appraisal. 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Back ground of the study The Dire Dawa police commission recognizes its duties and responsibilities to all the administration public who are customersRead MoreWhat Makes Authentic Leadership?1203 Words   |  5 Pagesthe definitions is the notion that authentic individuals align their actions and behaviors with their core values and beliefs. Those who study the field have developed a continuum in which individuals can be thought of as either authentic or inauthentic. A Comparison Review Authentic leadership theory is rooted in the work of positive psychology and focuses on the leader’s strengths, as opposed to short comings (Livingston Lusin, 2009). The authentic leaders’ strong display of their â€Å"psychological

Friday, December 20, 2019

Inflation and Indonesia - 3630 Words

PESTEL analysis of Indonesia | October 3 2009 | SUBMITTED TO: MR. SUNDERASAN SUBMITTED BY: Hitesh GoyalNirupan ChakravarthiSainath.V MBA 12 and PGPRM-9 | | Introduction: Indonesia is one of the largest countries in South-east Asia, between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean which contain mainly mountainous and covered with rain forests, swamps and consists over 13000 islands. Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia. Indonesia declared its independence on 17th August 1945 from Japan but Netherlands agreed to transfer sovereignty in 1949. Susilo Bambang is the President and Muhammad Yusuf Kalla is the Vice-President of Indonesia. Bahasa is the official language in Indonesia which modified form of Malay but the most widely spoken†¦show more content†¦They have hub of natural resources such as in Oil production, it has 23rd rank, in natural gas production and in export it is on 8th position. GDP: Indonesia has made significant economic advances through last years. Indonesias debt-to-GDP ratio in recent years has declined because of increasingly robust GDP growth which was 6.1% ($915.9 billion) in 2008 compare to 5.5% ($811.1 billion) in 2006 and compression to the world they are on 54th position in GDP growth. 14.4% of GDP earning from agriculture, 37.5% from service sector and the major part 48.1% comes from industry. (The World Bank, 2009) Per capita income: If we talk about per capita income, it was $3,500 in 2006 which was increase up to $3900 in 2008 and comparison to the world it is on the 157th rank in per capita income. A. Average Family Income – 33 (Gina index) B. Distribution of Wealth 1. Income Class Bottom 10% of population represents 4% of wealth Top 10% of population represents 27% of wealth Exchange rate: Indonesian rupiah (IDR) per US dollar - 9,698.9 (2008) compare to 9,159.3 (2006) Indonesian rupiah (IDR) per Indian rupee- 205.97 FDI: FDI is one of the most important factors for every country. It plays a vital role in Indonesia growth rate. It is a developing country so they have good inflow of FDI. It was $67.3 billion in 2008 compare to $58.96 billion in 2007 and they are on 45th position in FDI stock. Inflation rates: Inflation rate is still highShow MoreRelatedInflation and Indonesia3624 Words   |  15 PagesPESTEL analysis of Indonesia | October 3 2009 | SUBMITTED TO: MR. SUNDERASAN SUBMITTED BY: Hitesh GoyalNirupan ChakravarthiSainath.V MBA 12 and PGPRM-9 | | Introduction: Indonesia is one of the largest countries in South-east Asia, between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean which contain mainly mountainous and covered with rain forests, swamps and consists over 13000 islands. Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia. Indonesia declared its independence on 17th August 1945 from Japan but NetherlandsRead MoreImpact of Budget Deficit Policy1328 Words   |  6 Pagesbudget deficit, a policy which the state revenues are less than the state expenditure. To overcome the lack of revenues, effected by way of debt owed, whether sourced from domestic and abroad, issued a bond, or by printing money (Seignior age). Indonesia there has been a change in the policy of state revenues and state expenditures (the state budget) on the â€Å"New Orde† era and the â€Å"Reformation† era. In the â€Å"New Orde† era applied a policy of budget and state expenditures balanced and dynamic. The stateRead MoreEconomics Assignment Indonesia1331 Words   |  6 Pagesï » ¿INTRODUCTION Indonesia plays major role in today’s economic as Indonesia is one of the countries with the biggest GDP with the 4th largest population in the world. Joining the member of G-20 major economies, Indonesia has successfully emerges as the largest economy in Southeast Asia, moreover, Indonesia also classified as a new industrialized country. Government plays substantial role through ownership of 141 state industries and enterprises, and administration of prices of basic goods such as riceRead MoreThe Determinant Factors Of Equity Return1513 Words   |  7 PagesThe determinant factors of equity return in Indonesia Background Studies about determinant factors of equity return in each country is useful for global portfolio managers and global economic policy makers. Investors, in making profit, need to consider some risky aspects, to make speculation easier to be known, before investing in financial instruments in any country (Chandran et al. 2011, p.1). On the other hand, the government needs to attract capital inflow to support some development investmentsRead MoreThe Macroeconomic Conditions of Indonesia975 Words   |  4 PagesThe macroeconomic conditions of Indonesia are moderately challenging. The World Bank (2012) categories Indonesia as a lower middle income country. The CIA World Factbook (2012) notes that the country still struggles with poverty and unemployment, inadequate infrastructure, corruption, a complex regulatory environment and unequal resource distribution among regions. Indonesias GDP is $1.125 trillion per year (PPP), which places it as the 15th-largest economy among nations, behind Canada andRead MoreMalaysia s Income Inequality Trend Essay863 Words   |  4 Pagesmost volatile GDP per capita and GDP per capita growth rate whereas Indonesia has most stable GDP per capita and GDP per capita growth rate which are unaffected by global economic recession and other global economic factors. Figure 5. GDP per capita from 2007 to 2015 Figure 6. GDP per capita growth rate from 2007 to 2015 4. Income Inequality Figure 7. Income inequality trend From the figure 7, we can infer that Indonesia has lowest Income inequality, but in the recent few years, the seemsRead MoreWhatà ­s an Emerging Market Economy? Essay876 Words   |  4 Pagesemerging economy’s production levels rise thus increasing their GDP. The four largest emerging economies are Brazil, Russia, India and China, often abbreviated to the BRICs and the next four largest are Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. More recently, focus has fallen on Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey, now known as the MINT economies as the four emerging economies with the most promise. Emerging market economies experienced a challenging end to 2013 as the interest rates of developed economiesRead MoreExport And Import Markets And Trade Balance Essay1534 Words   |  7 PagesMajor Export/Import Markets and Trade Balance Figure 10. Exports of Indonesia Figure 11. Exports trend of Indonesia Figure 12. Imports of Indonesia Figure 13. Imports trend of Indonesia Figure 14. Trade balance trend of Indonesia As per Economic Complexity Index (ECI) Indonesia is the 79th most complex economy in the world. The country ranks 25th in terms of export in the world. As per 2014 export data, Indonesia imported $178B and exported $178B. This resulted in positive trade balanceRead MoreThe Reform And Implementation Of A New Defined Benefit Public Pension System1657 Words   |  7 PagesINTRODUCTION With the reform and implementation of a new defined benefit public pension system, Indonesia seeks to achieve international standards when it comes to public pensions. A new 1st pillar earnings-related defined benefit scheme named Jaminan Pensiun (JPN) was officially put into place on July 1st. With the exception of the non-contributory zero-pillar program, the implementation of JPN completes the Five Pillar Conceptual Framework suggested by the World Bank (World Bank, 2008). In thisRead MoreCentral Bank Of Indonesi Indonesia1436 Words   |  6 Pages Part 2: Indonesia Transition Indonesia in the fall of 2014 is in a recessionary phase. The GDP dropped from 6.48 in 2011 to a 5.78 in 2013. In addition to that, unemployment has increased from a 5.31 percent in 2011 to a 6.41 percent in 2013. This recession could be caused in part by the high rate of poverty in Indonesia. Currently about 24% of Indonesia’s population lives under the poverty line. The severity of this issue is reflected in the widening gap between the rich and the poor in Indonesia

Thursday, December 12, 2019

Disney Case Study free essay sample

In July 1923, Walt Disney and his brother Roy started their film business but they got their first real break in 1928. Walt produced Steamboat Willie, the first cartoon with sound and also introduced a new star Mickey Mouse. In the decades it followed, Walt became an extraordinary filmmaker, a motion picture innovator and pioneer. The name â€Å"Walt Disney† became universally known as the symbol of the finest family entertainment. The business activities of the company are in four segments: (1) theme parks, (2) films, (3) consumer products and (4) real estate development. The theme parks segment caused Disney not to grow. Disney’s attendance growth had been low or zero over the preceding decade, though as recently as 1978 the entertainment and recreation segment had shown a pretax return on assets of 15. 7 percent. With 25 major theme parks in competition for an aging population, demand thoroughly saturated and park attendance grew no more than 5% per year, which was one third the rate of 1970s. We will write a custom essay sample on Disney Case Study or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page The Walt Disney Companys objective is to be one of the worlds leading producers and providers of entertainment and information, using its portfolio of brands to differentiate its content, services and consumer products. The companys primary financial goals are to maximize earnings and cash flow, and to allocate capital profitability toward growth initiatives that will drive long-term shareholder value. The Walt Disney Company is the world’s largest media and entertainment conglomerate with assets encompassing media networks, theme parks and resorts, consumer products and real estate development. The Walt Disney Company’s film library is consisted of 25 full length animated features in color, 123 full lengths live action features, 8 true life adventure films and over 500 short films. The film Snow White was proved to be an enduring source of cash. Annual revenue for Snow White is as under (in millions). Year| Revenue| 1937| $10. 00| 1944| 4. 0| 1952| 5. 0| 1958| 6. 5| 1965| 13. 0| 1967| 23. 0| 1983| 28. 5| Theme parks and resorts include the operations of the Walt Disney World Resort in Florida, Disneyland Park, the Disneyland Hotel and the Disneyland Pacific Hotel in California. Consumer products segment includes its animated characters, literary properties, songs and music to manufacturers, publishers and retailers. In 1978, this segment gave a pretax return on assets of 179 percent. Real estate includes Arvida Corporation, acquired on June 6, 1984. Arvida controlled the development of 17,334 acres of land in Florida, Georgia and California. In 1983, Ron Miller became the CEO. After just a month, Miller gave up his post to Ray Watson (a close friend and his right hand man in the company). These constant changes in leadership led to a steep fall in the companys share price. The share price fell sharply from $84 in 1983 to $45 in 1984. The lowered share price and the lack of stability in the top management resulted in a number of corporate houses attempting to take over Disney in the early-1980s. Saul Steinberg started making serious bids to acquire Disney stock. By April 1984 he had acquired 6. 3% of the stock and announced his intention to acquire 25 percent of the company before long. Recognizing the threat, Disney management started making defensive moves. It announced its decision to buy back shares at a premium. Roy and Gold played a very important role at this stage and helped muster shareholder support to prevent Disney from being taken over. They enlisted the support of the Bass family, who were the largest shareholders in Disney, to regain a majority. Steinberg finally agreed to re-sell his stock to the company at a premium of $32 million and an additional $28 million for his expenses. All this added to the huge debt of the company. By the mid-1980s, what was needed was a change in leadership to bring about a turnaround. Corporate level strategy: Disney’s corporate level strategy is based on a horizontal, decentralized and informal management approach. Ideas are born from within the departments and are worked up throughout the relatively low hierarchy, where the final decision is made. Another interesting approach is the emphasis on expansion of the business. Again the corporate policy is to grow slowly and not to impress anyone. Recent trend towards rapid increase in costs in the movie industry have a direct effect on the profitability of the company. By cutting on costs involved in making and marketing Disney films, less expensive and more profitable movies can be produced. In addition, the corporate strategy is clearly focusing on diversifying its product and service mix has created an umbrella effect. Thus risk has been minimized. If one product line fails, other product line will cover up for its losses. The leverage ratio of total debt to total assets is 0. 80 in 1977-1980 and after that it decreased to 0. 59 in 1983. A total debt to total assets ratio higher than 50% is usually considered to be safe in stable industries. For Disney case, it is too high, so because of financial risk the ratio should be lowered to 50% or below. Business level strategy: Entertainment and recreation segment generates most the income for Disney. Entertainment and Motion Pictures would be the best product mix for Disney. (Refer the table below for 1983 data) Segment| Revenue| Entertainment and recreation| $1,031,202| Theme park| $32,692| Motion Pictures| $165,458| Consumer products and others| $110,697| Disney should sell more to existing customers, expand market place, should give promotions and always track the business. Greenmail is one of an array of strategies, ranging from changing corporate bylaws to acquiring debt that makes the corporation a less attractive target, used to deter raiders. It is an expensive alternative, as was illustrated when investor Saul Steinberg attempted to take over the Disney Corporation in 1984. Steinberg was known for his concerted efforts in the takeover field, having previously targeted Chemical Bank and Quaker State. In March 1984, his purchase of 6. 3 percent of Disneys stock triggered concern at the corporation that a takeover was in progress. Disney management quickly announced an approximately $390 million acquisition of its own that would make the company less attractive. After this maneuver failed, Disneys directors ultimately bought Steinbergs stock to stop the takeover. Steinberg earned a profit of about $60 million. Strengths: â€Å"I knew if this business was ever to get anywhere, if this business was ever to grow, it could never do it by having to answer to someone unsympathetic to its possibilities, by having to answer to someone with only one thought or interest, namely profits. For my idea of how to make profits has differed greatly from those who generally control businesses such as ours. I have blind faith in the policy that quality, tempered with good judgment and showmanship, will win against all odds. †Ã¢â‚¬â€Walt Disney When the Walt Disney Company initially began, it was under the control of Walt himself. Throughout his reign, he developed a culture to create experiences and â€Å"magical moments† for all his â€Å"guests† this philosophy from the beginning has created a long-lasting brand name known for producing a quality product or experience. This Disney culture has succeeded through tight control over how the brand and image is perceived. Disney has become one of the most recognized and renowned brand names throughout all industries. In addition to its well-known brand name, Disney has developed famous characters to add to its image (ex. Mickey, Minnie, Goofy, Donald, Pluto, etc. ). These characters have aided in Walt Disney’s ability to capitalize and have a definitive grasp upon their target consumers of children. However, Disney’s largest asset is their ability to stay diversified. Disney is a well-established conglomerate firm with a solid domination within the theme park and entertainment industry. Disney already operates through four different business segments which include media networks, parks and resorts, studio entertainment, and consumer products. Disney’s monumental deal with Apple creating a partnership between Disney and iTunes should provide an excellent resource to further push the brand and provide a reputable channel to push product distribution. Overall, Disney’s desire to strive for excellence, ability to adapt to change, and continuing to keep the consumers as the driving force behind the enterprise make Disney an empire within the media industry. Weaknesses: Being a conglomerate of this capacity, the Walt Disney Company holds exceptionally high sunk costs which could hinder Disney’s future financial abilities. In addition to sunk costs, there is the continual cost of updating all the parks, resorts, hotels, cruise ships, etc. Disney’s brand of â€Å"quality† must be maintained nonetheless it continues to escalate the costs. Although merchandise aimed at the children segment is a huge market, such a public image can have a â€Å"kiddie-stigma† attached to the Disney brand name which could deter the young adult segment. Opportunities: Disney has many opportunities to continue the firm’s growth within the industry. Currently the markets are much more versatile to outsourcing and globalization. The Walt Disney Company is working towards this global localization through expansion into Europe and Asia. Approximately twenty-five percent of Disney’s operating income comes from outside the United States and Canada, making continued growth internationally a major competitive advantage. Disney has invested tremendously in their Research and Development department, which projects progressive new attractions to pull in consumers. Disney’s ability to re-invent 5 and create limited edition products allows multiple opportunities for sales with new or improved merchandise. Threats: Disney has multiple threats that could negatively impact its profitability in the future. Disney’s major threat comes from its competitors on national, regional, and global platforms. The high competition and growth of other industry giants pose multiple problems to Disney’s ability to sustain as a leader within the industry. With the recent acquisition threat by Steinberg, Disney’s hasty acquisitions could post low or unprofitable sales, resulting in not only a loss, but a negative impact for the conglomerate’s brand name. Another threat is Disney’s high pressure and demand in terms of sales, creativity, and innovation while maintaining its quality status. Finally, due to the recent economic state, employee retention can pose a threat if employees are let go and work for competitors within the industry. SWOT (External Environment): Strength: * Strong financial background: First, Disney store has a very strong financial back up by Disney. It is very important for Disney Store to have market development and store improvement. * Exclusive for Disney’s products: Second, Disney Store is an exclusive agency for selling Disney’s products: Toys, clothing, stationary and gift items etc. It provides many choices for the customers and satisfies their needs. Customers might think of Disney Store immediately when they want to buy Disney’s items. *   Well-known brand: â€Å"Disney† is a well-known brand all over the world. The image of Disney is very healthy and positive. It is welcomed easily accepted by its target segments. Weaknesses: * Unchanged visual merchandising: One of the weaknesses is that the visual merchandising is not changed regularly; the window display is the same for many years. In this way, customers will feel boring because no stimulation and attraction for them. Stores are lack of theme decoration: Monotonous decoration in every Disney store fails to attract customers. Because there is no excitement, customers tend to stay in the store for short time. * Passive staff’s attitude: Staff are seldom greet and farewell customers. Although they answer enquires from customers, few of them introduce products and new information to customers proactively. Therefore, they fail to identify customers’ needs. Opportunities * Solo Tour: The practice of Solo Tour has brought a significant economic benefit to retail industry in Hong Kong. more provinces will be listed on Solo Tour. It is estimated to generate 43 million of traffic flows and every visitor would spend around HK 5,600 in Hong Kong. The benefit to Disney store is that more visitors will familiar with the Disney products and generate sales. Increasing awareness of Mainland people towards Disney stores in Hong Kong may be the opportunity for Disney to further develop the China Market. Threats * Competition with the Disney Store in the theme park: After the establishment of theme park, the competitive force of Disney store might not as large as the stores in the park. Customers might prefer to buy souvenirs in the park rather than the outlets. * Decreasing birth rate: The trends of late marriage and family planning result in shrinking the market size of Disney store, and gradually lower the demand for Disney products. Free Cash Flow (For 1983) = Operating cash flow – capital expenditure = $337,356 $291,202 = $46,154 Recommendations: Shareholder’s rights plan is one of the takeover defensive strategy which activates at the moment a potential acquirer announces its intentions. Under this plan, Disney could have purchased additional company stocks at an attractively discounted price, making it far more difficult for Steinberg to take control. A staggered board of directors, in which groups of directors are elected at different times for multiyear teams, could have challenged the raider. Increasing debt as a defensive strategy has been deployed in the past. By increasing debt significantly, companies hope to deter raiders concerned about repayment after the acquisition. However, adding a large debt obligation to a companys  balance sheet  can significantly erode  stock  prices. Perhaps a better strategy for target shareholders is for the company to make an acquisition, preferably through stock swaps or a combination of stock and debt. This has the effect of diluting the raiders ownership percentage and makes the takeover significantly more expensive. Ironically, a takeover defense that has been successful in the past, is to turn the tables on the acquirer and mount a bid to take over the raider. This requires resources and shareholder support, and it removes the possibility of activating the other defensive strategies. This strategy, called the  Pac-Man defense, after Bendix Corporations attempted to acquire Martin Marietta in 1982, very rarely benefits the shareholders. Martin Marietta defended itself by purchasing Bendix stock and sought a white knight in Allied Corporation. Extra Credit Question (Give Extra credit to lowest scored exam) What was the enabling factor of acquisition? Disney was an attractive target for Steinberg for a takeover because it was really worth more in pieces than as a whole operation and it appeared to be Steinberg’s intention to reap his profit by breaking up this operation and sell off the pieces. Actually it is more complex. Moreover, in 1983, Ron Miller became the CEO. After just a month, Miller gave up his post to Ray Watson (a close friend and his right hand man in the company). These constant changes in leadership led to a steep fall in the companys share price. The share price fell sharply from $84 in 1983 to $45 in 1984. The lowered share price and the lack of stability in the top management resulted in a number of corporate houses attempting to take over Disney in the early-1980s.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Concert Report - TCU Jazz Combos free essay sample

During the concert they played various Jazz compositions written by some of the very performers themselves. Several other pieces were more well known jazz compositions from internationally recognized artists. The concert itself was not very crowded, with pockets of individuals scattered throughout the audience. There was definitely interaction between the performers and the audience. I found this aspect of the Jazz concert to be unique to other concerts. Jazz concerts are significantly less formal than classical orchestra concerts r even Plano concerts In which applause Is saved for the very end.In Jazz concerts, after a solo It Is considered appropriate to applaud, even during the middle of a piece. Having never attended a jazz concert before, I found this to be a wonderful learning experience. The first set of pieces that were performed were called Reciprocity, composed by Garrett Winnfield, and Sound of Silence, composed by Paul Simon. Not knowing what to expect, I found Reciprocity to be a very exciting and Jazzy piece. We will write a custom essay sample on Concert Report TCU Jazz Combos or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Reciprocity featured solos from the saxophone (Garrett Winnfield), the trumpet Luke Winnfield), and the drums (Russell Wharton).Sound of Silence, which followed, was more dramatic than Reciprocity, featuring various stops and starts and use of crescendo. The piece was well organized, and its composition reflected its title quite well. This piece featured solos from the trombone (Tanner Webb), and the saxophone (Garrett Winnfield). I enjoyed listening to both of these pieces. I found Sound of Silence to be better organized than Reciprocity. However, I also thoroughly enjoyed listening to the solos that echoed each previous Instrumental solo In Reciprocity. Overall, these pieces were effective showcases of the performers talents and abilities.The second set of pieces that were performed were called The Birds Nest in the Foxs Den, composed by Alex Neal, and Something to Look At, also composed by Alex Neal. The first piece featured quarter note rests throughout, allowing the piece to surprise the audience with stops and starts throughout. The Birds Nest in the Foxs Den was very effective in building suspense during certain areas of the composition. This piece featured solos from the saxophone (Garrett Winnfield), the attar (Alex Neal), and the drums (Russell Wharton). Something to Look At had a much different feel than The Birds Nest in the Foxs Den. While The Birds Nest in the Foxs Den was upbeat with a quicker tempo, Something to Look At was a slower piece that consistently changed dynamics. Something to Look At was probably my favorite piece from the performance. While I usually prefer faster paced pieces, I found Something to Look At to be a very enjoyable composition to listen to. I did not find The quite well, but I found the piece to be too Jumpy in certain areas.Additionally, I felt that the piece lacked a certain level of theme, and I struggled to find a connection between the title and the music for much of the piece. The third set of pieces that were performed were called Dolphin Dance, composed by Herb Hancock, You Are Too Beautiful, composed by Richard Rogers/Lorenz Hart, and Spain, composed by Chick Corer. I recognized the piece Dolphin Dance from a movie, and I enjoyed listening to it very much. I thought the performers did an outstanding job on this piece specifically because of the pace and because of the level of ordination between the group that the piece required.Dolphin Dance featured solos from the trumpet (Luke Winnfield) and the saxophone (Garrett Winnfield). The second piece, You Are Too Beautiful, was a slower piece with perhaps an andante tempo. I found this piece to be alright. They played it well, but it was not one of my favorites from the concert. You Are Too Beautiful featured a solo from the guitar (Alex Neal) and ended with a solo from the saxophone (Garrett Winnfield). The last piece, Spain, was very catchy. It had a faster pace with perhaps an allegro tempo and treated a Spanish style of sound.Each member performed a solo during this piece. I enjoyed listening to this piece, and I thought that this was probably one of their favorite pieces to perform because of how well they performed the piece. Overall I found this concert to be much more enjoyable than I anticipated. I have never been much of a performance concert fan, and I am glad that I had the chance to watch a very talented group of individuals perform a very interesting style of music. I will definitely be seeking out Jazz concert opportunities in the future.

Sunday, November 24, 2019

British Naval Fleet essays

British Naval Fleet essays The Up and Coming against the Established Britain had the greatest naval fleet in the world. Even when challenged by the best Spain had to offer, she was able to uphold her reputation. Now this was a lot to say since, Spain in the sixteenth century was at the height of her power.(Marx 11) Philip II was on a conquering massacre and Britain was the next to fall victim. Now with Elizabeth I trying to hold her unstable, internally conflicting country together, Spain thought it would be simple. Well, that is what they thought. Britain was having major problems within herself. Elizabeth I, being a female, did not have complete support from her country. Scotland, Wales and Ireland were in constantly in Elizabeths face with a threat of revolt. On top of that the small country had no wealth with the taxes being brought in late or being never brought in at all. Now to get an idea of how poor Britain actually was, British land owners were forced to sell their land and personal belongings to buy food when the small amount of taxes were not in on time. The Protestant Elizabeth was an easy target for the Spanish conquest. Charles V was the father of Philip II and he had an idealist dream. He wanted to wipe clean all other religions besides Christianity. He did in fact accomplish this dream until his created Christendom was split. Charles V was able to conquer all of the land around the Mediterranean and turn all conquered lands into Christianity; this was called Christendom. This was all good for Charles V until the Protestant Reformation ripped his ideal world in half. Now his son Philip II was going to do everything in his power to share in his fathers dream. Nothing was going to stop Philip II from having Christianity all throughout the New World. However, the scary thing about Philip II was that he would use everything and anything in is power until he got what he wanted and so far it was working....

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Arley Merchandise Corporation Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Arley Merchandise Corporation - Case Study Example If the company sought to issue $8 per share in market value of common stock then the earnings per share would be further diluted as if the shares are valued at less than $8 on the stock market at the exercise date. The company does not currently pay dividends and do not expect to pay dividends in the future. It means that shareholders would have to manufacture there own dividends. Selling shares to obtain income (manufacturing dividends) will involve additional costs such as broker fees and therefore does not represent an attractive option for the investors. The ten year note is therefore a more favourable option as it will prevent the company of going outside. The rate of 128% above treasury rate is just 1% higher than the rate of 127% which was offered in January 1983. Although issuing the ten year note increases debt, it does not involve a negotiation of interest rate; neither does it consider the level of debt currently available. Arley Merchandise would only be paying interest o n the notes which is fixed. Interest expense is an allowable deduction for tax purposes. If the company decides to pay divide pay dividend in the future it would be a less advantageous option to investors. Furthermore, the ten year note is a less risky option for investors as they have prior claim over shareholders should the company go into bankruptcy. It would therefore attract more investors to buy the company’s shares. The fact that it pays interest quarterly makes it even better.

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

A Critical Reflection Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

A Critical Reflection - Essay Example I realized that I could make some money if I sold some branded wristbands to my friends at margin. Although the venture collapsed shortly thereafter due to lack of sufficient resources, it played a critical role in shaping my life towards always looking for opportunities to satisfy unmet business needs. I believe that success does not come only from working hard but also by seizing opportunities at the right time. Essentially, entrepreneurship requires one to have a knack of identifying the unmet needs, assessing the business potential of an idea and then finally committing to implement the idea. Since my first experience in business at the age of ten, I have made significant efforts to improve my personal organization skills in order to be effective. One of the key areas that greatly influence entrepreneurial success is time management. Planning and productive use of time is essential in helping one to achieve his or her goals (Bird and West 2007). In order to manage my time effecti vely, I always plan my work well in advance and try to follow the schedule accordingly. However, sometimes I do get distracted by other responsibilities such as family issues and deviate from my set plans. Also, private engagements and having fun consume a significant portion of my time which would otherwise be utilized in a more productive manner. Entrepreneurship often involves the pursuit of new and innovative ideas. Thus, an entrepreneur inherently works in a highly stressful and challenging work environment. I have managed to internalize and apply this skill in my life by exercising self awareness of my personal strengths and limitations as I pursue business goals. According to Rae, interpersonal interaction is a core component of entrepreneurship capabilities (Blenker et al 2012). Business inevitably involves interactions with people of various backgrounds. For instance, a businessman has to interact with customers, competitors, suppliers, government authorities and other stak eholders. In my daily endeavors, I always aim at growing my network of social and industry contacts. I have learnt that it is through interactions with people that I am able to find out what is important to them and understand the situation from their perspectives. This is fundamentally important for an entrepreneur as it helps one to gain comprehensive understanding of the customer and lays the foundations for creating a product that perfectly addresses the needs of the clients. Teamwork is essential in entrepreneurship since the tasks involved are often enormous and difficult for a single individual to handle (Clarke and Robin 2010). Working in teams requires the leader to rally individuals to towards the attainment of a common goal. Negotiations are also critical as part of interpersonal interactions since an entrepreneur has to bargain for the best deals possible. From the entrepreneurship module, I have that negotiations require proper planning, clear goals and patience (Robson 2010). These components are important since they help one to get the best results from any negotiation and reach a favorable agreement. Teece (2010) noted that an idea remains simply an idea unless it is rigorously assessed to ascertain its potential value. Imperatively, it is foolhardy to rush into executing a business a idea before investigating its viability. The first step of entrepreneurship is coming up with new or better ideas to solve challenges in the society. It is evident from the learning in this module that once an opportunity has been identified, the entrepreneur should investigate and develop options for exploiting the opportunity. It is also necessary for one to entrepreneur to identify how the available resources

Sunday, November 17, 2019

The Legalization Of Marijuana For Medicinal Purposes Essay

The Legalization Of Marijuana For Medicinal Purposes - Essay Example In this context, medicinal cannabis is an example of alternative healing these ailments. Although setback by the illegal constraints, it is increasingly becoming a considered healing method. Through the hallucinogenic and soothing qualities, it lowers the level of pain for a short time. This means that an individual needs the medicine in large quantities. This article states that marijuana contains medicinal value through chemicals found in buds, leaves, and resin of the plant. The cannabis plant provides significance in pulp and fiber from the stalk including high nutrition seed oil. In 1973, Mikuriya traced the medicinal value of the herb plant. During the 19th century, William B. O'Shaughnessy deduced that it was effective and safe for the use of the drug in treating some maladies. In 1860, studies by the Ohio State Medical Society came up with similar conclusions. Information on this website depicts measures taken against therapeutic users of the hemp plant. In contrast, the site explains the advantages provided by the plant in the treatment of ailments that threaten the health and lives of human beings. In arthritis, cannabis contains anti-inflammatory qualities that aid in treating the disease. Cannabis also contains cannabidiol and cannabinoid elements according to researchers in the National Institute for Mental Health, in 1998. These elements help in the prevention of stroke and head traumas. In reference to the article, the goal of the legalization of cannabis is to make communities safer by regulating the drug and removing it from underground markets. This means that the value of the marijuana is evident and significant in solving heath some health issues. Tatiana demonstrates the use of cannabis sativa in the treatment of diseases such as epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, glaucoma and eating disorders.

Friday, November 15, 2019

Strategies for Disaster Risk Management

Strategies for Disaster Risk Management INTRODUCTION I. Background Natural disasters have always posed a threat to development. Developing countries are usually far less well placed than industrialised ones to deal effectively with hazards that occur out of the blue. The first priority must be to reduce peoples (men, women and young people) vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and storms and to avoid the emergence of new risks, in order to secure the progress of development. Disaster risk management is therefore crucial to sustainable development. It is closely linked with the overarching Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing poverty (M D G 1); in many parts of the world this goal cannot be achieved without it. In its report â€Å"Towards Halving Poverty† the German Government again emphasised this link: â€Å"Disaster relief on its own is not enough. In order to save human lives effectively and protect individuals and economies from physical damage in the long term, everything possible must be done before a natural disaster occurs to minimise the impact. Disaster prevention is therefore an important part of any sustainable development strategy†. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (B M Z), 2004: page32) In recent years the need for disaster risk management has increased as a result of the rise in the number of damaging natural events. Some global trends (such as increasing population pressure on natural resources in some regions, urbanisation and widening economic disparities) are likely to further amplify the risks arising from an increase in the number and intensity of hazardous natural events. As a result of climate change, disaster risk management is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale. In conjunction with these developments, we are seeing a growing risk of crises and conflicts, in particular those arising from competition for vital resources. By dealing appropriately and gender-sensitively with natural disasters and climate change, however, we can go some way to defusing the conflict potential. Disaster risk management is first and foremost the responsibility of the affected country. It is particularly important in countries exposed to major natural risks. In such countries, elements of disaster risk management should increasingly be incorporated as standard practice into national development strategies (such as poverty reduction strategies) and other local, national plans. This presupposes that the statutory and institutional framework required is in place. Entry points for effective action must be identified for each sector. The examples presented in this publication have shown that their education of disaster risks can be addressed at many levels. However, it is always important that the people potentially affected are sensitised and given the information they need, so that they can react promptly; they are directly involved at the scene of the event. Natural hazards and disasters are events that are frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses which is now becoming a major concerned to international community because of large impact of life losses and economic losses in developing countries. Why is natural hazards and disasters occurring so frequently now a days and how did man increases vulnerability. Population growth, run away organization, high rise building, uses of limited rescores, environment damage etc are just some of the factor explaining the sources of frequent natural hazards which leads to human and material casualties in case of disaster. If there is a risk of natural hazard then large population area is most vulnerable and the impact of disaster will also be high. The traditional way to cope with disaster was using warning before disaster strikes and emergency relief after disaster occurs and the government agency would only play its role in coping disaster. This approach is adequate to reduce l osses in disaster to acceptable levels Due to frequent natural disaster taking place and large of life and economic losses, international community came to the point that by implanting â€Å"Community Base Management Approach† is a process in which at-risk communities are actively engaged in the identification, analysis, treatment, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risks in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities Disasters can become uncontrollable, once the event has got underway. If the community were not well prepared, control over the disaster event would be usually lost during its occurrence. If each individual in the community is familiar with ways of coping and precautionary measures, then the disruption by a disaster can be reduced. This â€Å"Community Base Approach† where community plays an anchor role with the support of Government, non-government institution agencies. The involvement of the communities is the key aspect for the sustainability of community for disast er reduction. External agencies, like government, non-government organizations may begin and implement community level programs before and after disasters. However, such initiative many times discontinue once the external support is ended. There can be many reasons behind this lack of sustainability, some of which may be the lack of partnership, participation, empowerment and ownership of local communities. All communities have some vitally important assets to deal with disasters. These may include knowledge of disaster warning signs, locally safe and vulnerable areas, experience of past disasters, methods of survival and social relations that are often vitally important in coping with crisis. Local communities have an active part to play before and after disasters so it is therefore important to involve people in decision making on policies and strategies that should be followed for their development in the community. The objective of this management is to prepare community develop hazards mitigation plans before disaster strikes. An effective plan will improve communitys ability to deal with natural disasters and most efficient and effective ways to reduce losses to life and property. Preparing a plan will provide the following benefits to the community: Reduce public and private damage costs Reduce social, emotional, and economic disruption; Increase access to funding sources for hazard mitigation projects Improve ability to implement post-disaster recovery projects by using risk management tools. More number of lives can be saved during the first few hours after disaster has occurred through local response teams, before help arrives from elsewhere. The numerous problems of survival and health resulting from a disaster are dealt with more efficiently, if the community is active and well organized. The social and economic cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years due to population growth, change in land use patterns, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change.[16] In addition to the loss of lives and major destruction of economic and social infrastructure, natural disasters set back poverty reduction programs and cause diversion of government funds to pay for reconstruction and recovery efforts. There has been little formal analysis of the longer-term impacts of disasters in the Philippines but annual infrastructure losses and related diversion of scarce public resources must ultimately have an impact on the countrys long-term sustainable development II. Research Questions Following are the three research questions on which I will conduct my research. In the first part, I will identify the hazards and their impact on third world countries and then I will analyze what are the risks associated with the natural disasters in third world countries. In the second part, I will illustrate the case to support the discussion above, and impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. 1. Research Methodology The research onion described by Mark Saunders, Philip Lewis and Adrian Thornhill (2006) is used to analyze the philosophy, approach and strategy of research. a) Philosophy The major philosophy used in this research used is ‘Realism. According to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), realism is a branch of epistemology which is similar to positivism in that it assumes a scientific approach to the development of knowledge. This assumption underpins the collection of data and the understanding of that data. Bhaskar (1989) argues that we can identify what we dont see through the practical and theoretical processes of the social sciences. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. so ontology is not the right choice for this particular research as according to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), it is concerned with the nature of reality. b) Approach The research has employed inductive as well as deductive approach. Since, one of the main objectives of the research is to out the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries, therefore inductive approach has been used extensively. Only where there is a requirement of analyzing the quantitative data, deductive approach will be used. The research approach influences design and gives the researcher the opportunity to consider how each of the various approaches may contribute to, or limit, his study (Creswell, 2003). For research theory there are two main approaches which are mainly used i.e. deductive and inductive approach. Firstly the analysis of the collected data, and then a theory or hypothesis is formulated, this is inductive approach. In contrast, a deductive approach is where, after reviewing the existing theory, hypothesis is developed which is then tested by conducting a research (Bryman, and Bell 2007) The study for will follow Inductive approach for two reasons. In the first place the research involves observation of past disasters, impact of this disaster with s of death and economic losses and currently number of people living in prone disaster areas. In the second place, the inductive approach appears more appropriate to the purpose of this study which is to gather the problem facing to implementing disaster management plan and roles of public and private sector in making strategy and policies with sustainability of the plan. c) Strategy There are two types of research strategies i.e. qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative research strategy is the general orientation to conduct business research. It usually focuses on â€Å"words† instead of statistical analysis of data. It usually involves inductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. The main aim is to generate a theory. Interviewing the expatriate is the main purpose of this research (Bryman and Bell, 2007). On the other hand, quantitative research strategy focuses more on the â€Å"quantification† in collection and analysis of data. It usually involves deductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. Testing the theories in the main purpose in quantitative research (Bryman and Bell, 2007) Some common contrasts between qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative Quantitative Words Numbers Point of views of participants Point of views of researchers Researcher close Researcher distant Theory emergent Theory testing Process Static Unstructured Structured Contextual understanding Generalized Rich, deep data Hard, reliable data Micro Macro Meaning Behaviour Natural settings Artificial settings (Source: Bryman and Bell, 2007: 426) The strategy of this research will maintain both strategy but quantitative will be more domains on qualitative strategy. Quantitative strategy will provide base on which qualitative strategy will dependable on. According to Burgess, 1982 â€Å"There are several reasons for using the qualitative research. First reason is the belief of the researcher which is based upon the research experience. The other important point is that most researchers use this method, hoping that their work has direct or potential relevance for academic as well as non-academic audiences. All methods have advantages and disadvantages but some methods are still better than the other in order to obtain primary data. Small numbers of participants are used to obtain primary data in this research. In-depth interview is a form of conversation†. (Burgess, 1982) d) Data Analysis Approach The research is mainly comprised of qualitative data and will be inductive in nature; hence analytical induction approach will be used to make the critical remarks. Other theories do not cope with the philosophy, approach and strategy of the research and cannot be used for that reason. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools help to answer questions like who is vulnerable, where they are and why they are vulnerable. GIS was used to identify vulnerable areas using statistical tools. Although the data generated are usually integrated in the form of tables, graphs and/or charts, maps have the advantage of presenting data in an easily accessible, readily visible and eye-catching manner. The resulting maps combine information from different sectors to provide an immediately comprehensive picture of the geographical distribution of vulnerable group. By providing a visual overview on the major issues, maps highlight gaps and shortfalls in information and thus areas needing attention. A GIS based approach is helpful for highly disaggregated data; it can easily perform statistical analysis as well as graphic presentation. 2. Sampling Sample population consists of a number of third world countries such as India, Bangaldesh and Pakistan which are the focus of some of the key disaster in recent years will be under the main focus. Because of the special nature of this research, the data collection points are huge. Henry (1990) advised against using probability sampling technique for sample population of less than 50. Because of the short time span and financial constraints the research will employ homogenous sampling technique. Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007) argue that homogenous sampling technique focuses on one sub group in which all the sample members are similar. This will help us to cover the topic in detail. 3. Data Collection The research employees both qualitative and quantitative data techniques to draw conclusions. However, main emphasis will be given to collect and analyze the qualitative data. The plan of the research will be mainly to use primary data collected from both primary and secondary sources. In this approach different historical data were used to point out the areas and communities which experienced the disaster situation in the past and their present risk and degree of vulnerability. This is more like, learning from past mistake and applying new strategy and plan which was missing in the past. This approach is very helpful in making strategy, determining policies, identifying natural hazard area and communities and implanting plan. According to Jackson (1994) the value of a research is related to its data collection methods and importantly, whether or not it includes both secondary and primary data. Data for the study were collected in two sources: primary and secondary sources. Both primary and secondary data sources were analyzed together to strengths the material and minimize their weaknesses by combining them in respectable way. There are many methods to collect the primary data, but this research will more focus on Literature review, case studies, bibliography, questionnaire and GIS techniques. All these method can be qualitative and quantitative in nature Mostly secondary data of this study included records and latest reports available from the CRED disaster database. Other sources such as articles, textbooks, journals, annual reports, websites etc were also very helpful and used to support reports. Two types of data were used for obtaining data from different reports. Historic data and GIS (geographic Information System) based mapping data. a) Secondary Sources of Data Secondary data will be of utmost importance in this research. Information will be acquired from reliable sources. Priority will be given to government sources in order to provide accurate information. Online website such as Business Monitor Online will be used comprehensively because they contain most up-to-date information. Journals and articles will be used extensively as well because explanation of data from these sources will be more accurate. This research will also include statistical analysis where information will be easily accessible from company reports, IMF Reports, World Bank Reports and government websites. 4. Limitations of the Research There will be a lot of limitations and restrictions in carrying out the desired research. There are limitations associated with the available and up to date data on the third world countries. The questionnaire in research project is to support findings which will be drawn from secondary data but insufficient funds and time restriction may hold back the collection of primary data. The qualitative data analysis also poses threat because it may involve human judgment errors. 3. Literature Review 3.1 Introduction In this chapter the objectives of the study will focus on the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. Research of this mapping is mapped on the base of district level which covers whole region of South Asia. District is divided according to Administrative division of its related country. So the size, population, geological location and climate condition will vary each other although it is situated in same provinces. The mapping of these districts is related to high and medium level of risk to natural events is included in this table. Some district has been promoted to disaster prone district although there have been no evidence of such natural events in past but due to certain factors like rises of sea level, earth quake zone, change in climate condition etc, makes these districts highly exposed to natural events in future. Such as Maldives, although there have been no evidence of tsunami for past 100 years but due to rise in sea lev el and located in earth quake zone whole Maldives is at high risk to flood and tsunami. This table is made on the bases of related to human life and economic losses. So Natural event like wild fire which is very frequent in Nepal and Burma has been excluded from the table because the impact on human lifes and economic losses are very low, although its impact on environmental is very high. 3.2 Disaster The term disaster can be defined as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. This notion of disaster draws a distinction between sudden and slow onset disasters. Amongst natural disasters extreme droughts are the only ones that are slow onset by nature. The causes and effects of a drought disaster are far more difficult to ascertain than sudden natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or landslides. Due to the gradual nature of the process, often taking place over months and even years, the causes are more complex and it is often only possible to identify the effects indirectly. However, not every extreme natural event is a disaster. A volcanic eruption in an unoccupied area is a natural event but not a disaster. Floods can also have many beneficial effects the soil is supplied with fresh nutrients and made more fertile again, resulting in higher yields. So, disasters always have adverse impacts but specific approaches to them must cater for the dual nature of such events, i.e. disaster risk management searches to maintain the positive impacts while reducing the adverse consequences of extreme natural events. 3.2 Disaster Risk Management Technical Cooperation defines disaster risk management as a series of actions (programmes, projects and/or measures) and instruments expressly aimed at reducing disaster risk in endangered regions, and mitigating the extent of disasters. Disaster risk management includes risk assessment, disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster preparedness. It is used in the international debate to underscore the current trend of taking a proactive approach to hazards posed by extreme natural phenomena. The intention is a comprehensive reduction in disaster risk accounting for all the factors that contribute to risk (risk management), as opposed to a focus on each individual danger. Disaster risk management consists of the following elements: I. Risk Analysis II. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation III. Disaster Preparedness and IV. Disaster Preventive Reconstruction There is a risk of natural disaster when a society is exposed to natural hazards but lack adequate means and ability to protect itself from potential negative impacts i.e. vulnerability. The risk management process analyzes the natural hazard in relation to the societys vulnerability, in order to first evaluate potential damage and losses. This involves calculating the probability that a natural hazard will occur, identifying vulnerability factors in society, drawing up damage scenarios and evaluating measures for rapid reconstruction in the even of a disaster. A societys ability to continue to function while dealing with a hazard is known as its resilience. Prevention and mitigation covers activities whose long term aim is to mitigate the possible adverse impacts of a natural even and its consequences and provide permanent protection against its effects. Prevention and mitigation measures may be constructional and non material. The process of preparedness enables the country to resp ond effectively in case of an imminent disaster. Important elements in the process of preparedness include making the emergency plans, the availability of rescue and emergency services, emergency medical care, rapid and efficient transmission of warnings and the availability of means of communication. An important component of preparedness is the early waning system which significantly reduces the impact of disaster. A good early warning system will promptly identify and assess a hazard. Warnings are issued to the affected population and institutions, who respond appropriately. Disaster preventive reconstruction aims to draw appropriate lessons from the natural disaster and to include disaster reduction criteria and measures directly in the reconstruction process. Disaster Risk Management Process 3.3 Vulnerability of South Asian Countries to Disasters Vulnerability can be defined as the inadequate means or ability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of natural events and, on the other hand, to recover quickly from their effects. The South Asian countries of the world are vulnerable to a number of factors. These factors comprise of very diverse, often mutually reciprocal, factors that have to be taken into account to determine the vulnerability of a family, a village or a country. The main vulnerability factors of developing countries to disasters are summarized below: * Political-Institutional Factors One of the important vulnerable factors of developing countries to natural disaster is political and institutional factor. The role of legislation is lacking and also it is not commensurate with the hazard or is not implemented (regional development and land use planning, building regulations). The personnel and financial resources available for disaster risk management and preparedness are inadequate. Roles are not properly or clearly assigned and there is a lack of coordination in and amongst the responsible institutions (including centralism: insufficient power for local actors) in developing countries. The political culture is conducive to vested interests and corruption, which hampers consistent disaster risk management (e.g. in the building trade) and effective disaster preparedness. The Democratic institutions in developing countries are underdeveloped and also low level of participation of the population in democratic processes diminishes their self-help capabilities is very low. Also the mechanisms and instruments for spreading financial risks are lacking or inadequate (e.g. disaster funds, insurance). A culture of prevention is obstructed or insufficiently promoted. All of these above mentioned make the developing nation more vulnerable to the natural disasters. * Economic factors Another important vulnerable factor of developing countries to natural disaster is then economic factor. In developing countries the financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (e.g. for flood protection infrastructure). Also the level of poverty in general limits the self-help capabilities of large parts of the population, although very effective traditional mechanisms to cope with disasters still exist in many developing countries. In the developing countries poverty increasingly compels people to settle in endangered areas (on riverbanks and steep slopes, in gulleys or ravines or on the slopes of volcanoes). Partly through environmental degradation (e.g. unofficial garbage dumps or slash-and-burn clearance), poor people often contribute to their own higher disaster risk. The economies of developing countries also depend on a few products (low level of diversification) and the danger is particularly great if these sectors are vulnerable to disaster (e.g. agric ulture). Not enough account is taken of the influence of economic activities on disaster risk (e.g. consumption of natural resources). * Sociocultural factors Socio cultural factor also play an important role in making the developing countries vulnerable to natural disasters. In developing countries due to poor education and insufficient knowledge of the cause-effect matrix, people are less able to respond appropriately in a changing environment. Also fatalism is widespread as a consequence of the belief that natural disasters are willed by God and are therefore inevitable. In developing countries the tradition of slash-and-burn clearance or the application of out-dated production methods can result in greater vulnerability for people and their property. On the other hand it may result in greater hazard due to the adverse impact on the natural environment (e.g. erosion through deforestation). The population is not prepared to engage in mutual support schemes and organize themselves in order to negotiate competing interests in the search for greater levels of general welfare. These political, economic and cultural factors are interconnected in a complex way. They have a reciprocal relationship and often compound each other. Progress in individual aspects, therefore, may well also have a positive effect on other vulnerability factors. A general improvement in school education, for instance, can be expected to help reduce poverty, facilitate the application of appropriate production methods and raise organizational abilities. This in turn can motivate people for prevention, thus generating a positive influence on the political factors through greater participation. 3.4 Impact and Threat of Climate Change The major impacts and threats of global warming are well-known. Recent increase in global temperature as already experienced intensity and extreme events, for example frequent occurrence of flood and intensity of heat wave. On the other hand global warming will increase melting water from glaciers and ice sheets which will cause sea level to rise and also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation respectively. This causes thermal expansion of the oceans. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture, food security, human health, global ecosystems, biodiversity and coastal zones. Some of the impact and threat had already been experienced and if this continued in current way which will affect the global ecosystem in the following way. Impact Threats 1. Changes in rainfall pattern 1. Will lead to severe shortage of water and causes drought around the globe 2. Will increase average rainfall and causes severe flooding around the globe. 3. It will have unpleasant impact on agriculture and traditional subsistence-based agriculture. This becomes more vulnerable and difficult which will eventually affecting the economic well-being of the local famers. 2. Melting of glaciers 1. Many rivers and lakes formed by melting of glacier water will grow in size and causes flooding recently which pose threat to nearby villages but very soon when there will be no glacial melt, this causes them to dry up and spread drought. 2. If the melting of glaciers continues on the current rate, all Farmlands which depend on glacial water will dry up and it will lead up to scarcity of food. 3. Sea level will rise and entire communities living on coastal zone always pose threat from increasing sea water level. 4. Many animals, birds, and fish that depend on fresh melting water from glaciers for survival will either reduce in numbers or get wiped out over a period of time. 3. Change in regional temperature Change in climate patterns will cause shift in crop growing seasons which affects food security. Crops will tend to fail or become unbeneficial where conditions are currently marginal for their production but on the other hand crops may tend to grow successfully in other area where conditions are suitable and has become marginal for other crops. 2. Increase in temperature will speed up the life cycles of both the mosquito and the disease viruses. This will produce smaller adult mosquitoes to feed more often to develop an egg batch, which in turn increases the chances for disease transmission which will put more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. 3. Temperature increases will potentially accelerate rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30% with a 2 ° C rise in temperature). It will also affect coral reefs, boreal, forests and mountain habitats. 4. Increasing sea levels 1. It will greater the risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. 2. Fresh underground water on coastal lines will get polluted with salty sea water making it unfit for drinking or irrigation Who is most Vulnerable to natural hazard? 98% of those killed and affected by natural disasters come from developing countries, underlining the link between poverty and vulnerability to disaster. Rich countries have a far greater ability to reduce the effects of extreme weather events (such as floods and droughts) than developing countries. Proof of this can be found in statistics produced by the Red Cross, which reveal that 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development. By 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. (World Disaster report, 2001) Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disasters when peoples lives and livelihoods are swept away. The vulnerability of communities is growing due to human activities that lead to increased poverty, greater urban dens Strategies for Disaster Risk Management Strategies for Disaster Risk Management INTRODUCTION I. Background Natural disasters have always posed a threat to development. Developing countries are usually far less well placed than industrialised ones to deal effectively with hazards that occur out of the blue. The first priority must be to reduce peoples (men, women and young people) vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods and storms and to avoid the emergence of new risks, in order to secure the progress of development. Disaster risk management is therefore crucial to sustainable development. It is closely linked with the overarching Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of reducing poverty (M D G 1); in many parts of the world this goal cannot be achieved without it. In its report â€Å"Towards Halving Poverty† the German Government again emphasised this link: â€Å"Disaster relief on its own is not enough. In order to save human lives effectively and protect individuals and economies from physical damage in the long term, everything possible must be done before a natural disaster occurs to minimise the impact. Disaster prevention is therefore an important part of any sustainable development strategy†. (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (B M Z), 2004: page32) In recent years the need for disaster risk management has increased as a result of the rise in the number of damaging natural events. Some global trends (such as increasing population pressure on natural resources in some regions, urbanisation and widening economic disparities) are likely to further amplify the risks arising from an increase in the number and intensity of hazardous natural events. As a result of climate change, disaster risk management is facing challenges on an unprecedented scale. In conjunction with these developments, we are seeing a growing risk of crises and conflicts, in particular those arising from competition for vital resources. By dealing appropriately and gender-sensitively with natural disasters and climate change, however, we can go some way to defusing the conflict potential. Disaster risk management is first and foremost the responsibility of the affected country. It is particularly important in countries exposed to major natural risks. In such countries, elements of disaster risk management should increasingly be incorporated as standard practice into national development strategies (such as poverty reduction strategies) and other local, national plans. This presupposes that the statutory and institutional framework required is in place. Entry points for effective action must be identified for each sector. The examples presented in this publication have shown that their education of disaster risks can be addressed at many levels. However, it is always important that the people potentially affected are sensitised and given the information they need, so that they can react promptly; they are directly involved at the scene of the event. Natural hazards and disasters are events that are frequently result in high death tolls and large economic losses which is now becoming a major concerned to international community because of large impact of life losses and economic losses in developing countries. Why is natural hazards and disasters occurring so frequently now a days and how did man increases vulnerability. Population growth, run away organization, high rise building, uses of limited rescores, environment damage etc are just some of the factor explaining the sources of frequent natural hazards which leads to human and material casualties in case of disaster. If there is a risk of natural hazard then large population area is most vulnerable and the impact of disaster will also be high. The traditional way to cope with disaster was using warning before disaster strikes and emergency relief after disaster occurs and the government agency would only play its role in coping disaster. This approach is adequate to reduce l osses in disaster to acceptable levels Due to frequent natural disaster taking place and large of life and economic losses, international community came to the point that by implanting â€Å"Community Base Management Approach† is a process in which at-risk communities are actively engaged in the identification, analysis, treatment, monitoring and evaluation of disaster risks in order to reduce their vulnerabilities and enhance their capacities Disasters can become uncontrollable, once the event has got underway. If the community were not well prepared, control over the disaster event would be usually lost during its occurrence. If each individual in the community is familiar with ways of coping and precautionary measures, then the disruption by a disaster can be reduced. This â€Å"Community Base Approach† where community plays an anchor role with the support of Government, non-government institution agencies. The involvement of the communities is the key aspect for the sustainability of community for disast er reduction. External agencies, like government, non-government organizations may begin and implement community level programs before and after disasters. However, such initiative many times discontinue once the external support is ended. There can be many reasons behind this lack of sustainability, some of which may be the lack of partnership, participation, empowerment and ownership of local communities. All communities have some vitally important assets to deal with disasters. These may include knowledge of disaster warning signs, locally safe and vulnerable areas, experience of past disasters, methods of survival and social relations that are often vitally important in coping with crisis. Local communities have an active part to play before and after disasters so it is therefore important to involve people in decision making on policies and strategies that should be followed for their development in the community. The objective of this management is to prepare community develop hazards mitigation plans before disaster strikes. An effective plan will improve communitys ability to deal with natural disasters and most efficient and effective ways to reduce losses to life and property. Preparing a plan will provide the following benefits to the community: Reduce public and private damage costs Reduce social, emotional, and economic disruption; Increase access to funding sources for hazard mitigation projects Improve ability to implement post-disaster recovery projects by using risk management tools. More number of lives can be saved during the first few hours after disaster has occurred through local response teams, before help arrives from elsewhere. The numerous problems of survival and health resulting from a disaster are dealt with more efficiently, if the community is active and well organized. The social and economic cost of natural disasters has increased in recent years due to population growth, change in land use patterns, migration and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation and global climate change.[16] In addition to the loss of lives and major destruction of economic and social infrastructure, natural disasters set back poverty reduction programs and cause diversion of government funds to pay for reconstruction and recovery efforts. There has been little formal analysis of the longer-term impacts of disasters in the Philippines but annual infrastructure losses and related diversion of scarce public resources must ultimately have an impact on the countrys long-term sustainable development II. Research Questions Following are the three research questions on which I will conduct my research. In the first part, I will identify the hazards and their impact on third world countries and then I will analyze what are the risks associated with the natural disasters in third world countries. In the second part, I will illustrate the case to support the discussion above, and impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. 1. Research Methodology The research onion described by Mark Saunders, Philip Lewis and Adrian Thornhill (2006) is used to analyze the philosophy, approach and strategy of research. a) Philosophy The major philosophy used in this research used is ‘Realism. According to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), realism is a branch of epistemology which is similar to positivism in that it assumes a scientific approach to the development of knowledge. This assumption underpins the collection of data and the understanding of that data. Bhaskar (1989) argues that we can identify what we dont see through the practical and theoretical processes of the social sciences. The objective of the research is to assess the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. so ontology is not the right choice for this particular research as according to Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007), it is concerned with the nature of reality. b) Approach The research has employed inductive as well as deductive approach. Since, one of the main objectives of the research is to out the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries, therefore inductive approach has been used extensively. Only where there is a requirement of analyzing the quantitative data, deductive approach will be used. The research approach influences design and gives the researcher the opportunity to consider how each of the various approaches may contribute to, or limit, his study (Creswell, 2003). For research theory there are two main approaches which are mainly used i.e. deductive and inductive approach. Firstly the analysis of the collected data, and then a theory or hypothesis is formulated, this is inductive approach. In contrast, a deductive approach is where, after reviewing the existing theory, hypothesis is developed which is then tested by conducting a research (Bryman, and Bell 2007) The study for will follow Inductive approach for two reasons. In the first place the research involves observation of past disasters, impact of this disaster with s of death and economic losses and currently number of people living in prone disaster areas. In the second place, the inductive approach appears more appropriate to the purpose of this study which is to gather the problem facing to implementing disaster management plan and roles of public and private sector in making strategy and policies with sustainability of the plan. c) Strategy There are two types of research strategies i.e. qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative research strategy is the general orientation to conduct business research. It usually focuses on â€Å"words† instead of statistical analysis of data. It usually involves inductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. The main aim is to generate a theory. Interviewing the expatriate is the main purpose of this research (Bryman and Bell, 2007). On the other hand, quantitative research strategy focuses more on the â€Å"quantification† in collection and analysis of data. It usually involves deductive approach to the relationship of theory and research. Testing the theories in the main purpose in quantitative research (Bryman and Bell, 2007) Some common contrasts between qualitative and quantitative research. Qualitative Quantitative Words Numbers Point of views of participants Point of views of researchers Researcher close Researcher distant Theory emergent Theory testing Process Static Unstructured Structured Contextual understanding Generalized Rich, deep data Hard, reliable data Micro Macro Meaning Behaviour Natural settings Artificial settings (Source: Bryman and Bell, 2007: 426) The strategy of this research will maintain both strategy but quantitative will be more domains on qualitative strategy. Quantitative strategy will provide base on which qualitative strategy will dependable on. According to Burgess, 1982 â€Å"There are several reasons for using the qualitative research. First reason is the belief of the researcher which is based upon the research experience. The other important point is that most researchers use this method, hoping that their work has direct or potential relevance for academic as well as non-academic audiences. All methods have advantages and disadvantages but some methods are still better than the other in order to obtain primary data. Small numbers of participants are used to obtain primary data in this research. In-depth interview is a form of conversation†. (Burgess, 1982) d) Data Analysis Approach The research is mainly comprised of qualitative data and will be inductive in nature; hence analytical induction approach will be used to make the critical remarks. Other theories do not cope with the philosophy, approach and strategy of the research and cannot be used for that reason. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools help to answer questions like who is vulnerable, where they are and why they are vulnerable. GIS was used to identify vulnerable areas using statistical tools. Although the data generated are usually integrated in the form of tables, graphs and/or charts, maps have the advantage of presenting data in an easily accessible, readily visible and eye-catching manner. The resulting maps combine information from different sectors to provide an immediately comprehensive picture of the geographical distribution of vulnerable group. By providing a visual overview on the major issues, maps highlight gaps and shortfalls in information and thus areas needing attention. A GIS based approach is helpful for highly disaggregated data; it can easily perform statistical analysis as well as graphic presentation. 2. Sampling Sample population consists of a number of third world countries such as India, Bangaldesh and Pakistan which are the focus of some of the key disaster in recent years will be under the main focus. Because of the special nature of this research, the data collection points are huge. Henry (1990) advised against using probability sampling technique for sample population of less than 50. Because of the short time span and financial constraints the research will employ homogenous sampling technique. Saunders, Lewis Thornhill (2007) argue that homogenous sampling technique focuses on one sub group in which all the sample members are similar. This will help us to cover the topic in detail. 3. Data Collection The research employees both qualitative and quantitative data techniques to draw conclusions. However, main emphasis will be given to collect and analyze the qualitative data. The plan of the research will be mainly to use primary data collected from both primary and secondary sources. In this approach different historical data were used to point out the areas and communities which experienced the disaster situation in the past and their present risk and degree of vulnerability. This is more like, learning from past mistake and applying new strategy and plan which was missing in the past. This approach is very helpful in making strategy, determining policies, identifying natural hazard area and communities and implanting plan. According to Jackson (1994) the value of a research is related to its data collection methods and importantly, whether or not it includes both secondary and primary data. Data for the study were collected in two sources: primary and secondary sources. Both primary and secondary data sources were analyzed together to strengths the material and minimize their weaknesses by combining them in respectable way. There are many methods to collect the primary data, but this research will more focus on Literature review, case studies, bibliography, questionnaire and GIS techniques. All these method can be qualitative and quantitative in nature Mostly secondary data of this study included records and latest reports available from the CRED disaster database. Other sources such as articles, textbooks, journals, annual reports, websites etc were also very helpful and used to support reports. Two types of data were used for obtaining data from different reports. Historic data and GIS (geographic Information System) based mapping data. a) Secondary Sources of Data Secondary data will be of utmost importance in this research. Information will be acquired from reliable sources. Priority will be given to government sources in order to provide accurate information. Online website such as Business Monitor Online will be used comprehensively because they contain most up-to-date information. Journals and articles will be used extensively as well because explanation of data from these sources will be more accurate. This research will also include statistical analysis where information will be easily accessible from company reports, IMF Reports, World Bank Reports and government websites. 4. Limitations of the Research There will be a lot of limitations and restrictions in carrying out the desired research. There are limitations associated with the available and up to date data on the third world countries. The questionnaire in research project is to support findings which will be drawn from secondary data but insufficient funds and time restriction may hold back the collection of primary data. The qualitative data analysis also poses threat because it may involve human judgment errors. 3. Literature Review 3.1 Introduction In this chapter the objectives of the study will focus on the impact of climate change and mapping of disaster prone area of each South Asian countries. Research of this mapping is mapped on the base of district level which covers whole region of South Asia. District is divided according to Administrative division of its related country. So the size, population, geological location and climate condition will vary each other although it is situated in same provinces. The mapping of these districts is related to high and medium level of risk to natural events is included in this table. Some district has been promoted to disaster prone district although there have been no evidence of such natural events in past but due to certain factors like rises of sea level, earth quake zone, change in climate condition etc, makes these districts highly exposed to natural events in future. Such as Maldives, although there have been no evidence of tsunami for past 100 years but due to rise in sea lev el and located in earth quake zone whole Maldives is at high risk to flood and tsunami. This table is made on the bases of related to human life and economic losses. So Natural event like wild fire which is very frequent in Nepal and Burma has been excluded from the table because the impact on human lifes and economic losses are very low, although its impact on environmental is very high. 3.2 Disaster The term disaster can be defined as A serious disruption of the functioning of society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. This notion of disaster draws a distinction between sudden and slow onset disasters. Amongst natural disasters extreme droughts are the only ones that are slow onset by nature. The causes and effects of a drought disaster are far more difficult to ascertain than sudden natural events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or landslides. Due to the gradual nature of the process, often taking place over months and even years, the causes are more complex and it is often only possible to identify the effects indirectly. However, not every extreme natural event is a disaster. A volcanic eruption in an unoccupied area is a natural event but not a disaster. Floods can also have many beneficial effects the soil is supplied with fresh nutrients and made more fertile again, resulting in higher yields. So, disasters always have adverse impacts but specific approaches to them must cater for the dual nature of such events, i.e. disaster risk management searches to maintain the positive impacts while reducing the adverse consequences of extreme natural events. 3.2 Disaster Risk Management Technical Cooperation defines disaster risk management as a series of actions (programmes, projects and/or measures) and instruments expressly aimed at reducing disaster risk in endangered regions, and mitigating the extent of disasters. Disaster risk management includes risk assessment, disaster prevention and mitigation and disaster preparedness. It is used in the international debate to underscore the current trend of taking a proactive approach to hazards posed by extreme natural phenomena. The intention is a comprehensive reduction in disaster risk accounting for all the factors that contribute to risk (risk management), as opposed to a focus on each individual danger. Disaster risk management consists of the following elements: I. Risk Analysis II. Disaster Prevention and Mitigation III. Disaster Preparedness and IV. Disaster Preventive Reconstruction There is a risk of natural disaster when a society is exposed to natural hazards but lack adequate means and ability to protect itself from potential negative impacts i.e. vulnerability. The risk management process analyzes the natural hazard in relation to the societys vulnerability, in order to first evaluate potential damage and losses. This involves calculating the probability that a natural hazard will occur, identifying vulnerability factors in society, drawing up damage scenarios and evaluating measures for rapid reconstruction in the even of a disaster. A societys ability to continue to function while dealing with a hazard is known as its resilience. Prevention and mitigation covers activities whose long term aim is to mitigate the possible adverse impacts of a natural even and its consequences and provide permanent protection against its effects. Prevention and mitigation measures may be constructional and non material. The process of preparedness enables the country to resp ond effectively in case of an imminent disaster. Important elements in the process of preparedness include making the emergency plans, the availability of rescue and emergency services, emergency medical care, rapid and efficient transmission of warnings and the availability of means of communication. An important component of preparedness is the early waning system which significantly reduces the impact of disaster. A good early warning system will promptly identify and assess a hazard. Warnings are issued to the affected population and institutions, who respond appropriately. Disaster preventive reconstruction aims to draw appropriate lessons from the natural disaster and to include disaster reduction criteria and measures directly in the reconstruction process. Disaster Risk Management Process 3.3 Vulnerability of South Asian Countries to Disasters Vulnerability can be defined as the inadequate means or ability to protect oneself against the adverse impacts of natural events and, on the other hand, to recover quickly from their effects. The South Asian countries of the world are vulnerable to a number of factors. These factors comprise of very diverse, often mutually reciprocal, factors that have to be taken into account to determine the vulnerability of a family, a village or a country. The main vulnerability factors of developing countries to disasters are summarized below: * Political-Institutional Factors One of the important vulnerable factors of developing countries to natural disaster is political and institutional factor. The role of legislation is lacking and also it is not commensurate with the hazard or is not implemented (regional development and land use planning, building regulations). The personnel and financial resources available for disaster risk management and preparedness are inadequate. Roles are not properly or clearly assigned and there is a lack of coordination in and amongst the responsible institutions (including centralism: insufficient power for local actors) in developing countries. The political culture is conducive to vested interests and corruption, which hampers consistent disaster risk management (e.g. in the building trade) and effective disaster preparedness. The Democratic institutions in developing countries are underdeveloped and also low level of participation of the population in democratic processes diminishes their self-help capabilities is very low. Also the mechanisms and instruments for spreading financial risks are lacking or inadequate (e.g. disaster funds, insurance). A culture of prevention is obstructed or insufficiently promoted. All of these above mentioned make the developing nation more vulnerable to the natural disasters. * Economic factors Another important vulnerable factor of developing countries to natural disaster is then economic factor. In developing countries the financial resources are insufficient for disaster risk management (e.g. for flood protection infrastructure). Also the level of poverty in general limits the self-help capabilities of large parts of the population, although very effective traditional mechanisms to cope with disasters still exist in many developing countries. In the developing countries poverty increasingly compels people to settle in endangered areas (on riverbanks and steep slopes, in gulleys or ravines or on the slopes of volcanoes). Partly through environmental degradation (e.g. unofficial garbage dumps or slash-and-burn clearance), poor people often contribute to their own higher disaster risk. The economies of developing countries also depend on a few products (low level of diversification) and the danger is particularly great if these sectors are vulnerable to disaster (e.g. agric ulture). Not enough account is taken of the influence of economic activities on disaster risk (e.g. consumption of natural resources). * Sociocultural factors Socio cultural factor also play an important role in making the developing countries vulnerable to natural disasters. In developing countries due to poor education and insufficient knowledge of the cause-effect matrix, people are less able to respond appropriately in a changing environment. Also fatalism is widespread as a consequence of the belief that natural disasters are willed by God and are therefore inevitable. In developing countries the tradition of slash-and-burn clearance or the application of out-dated production methods can result in greater vulnerability for people and their property. On the other hand it may result in greater hazard due to the adverse impact on the natural environment (e.g. erosion through deforestation). The population is not prepared to engage in mutual support schemes and organize themselves in order to negotiate competing interests in the search for greater levels of general welfare. These political, economic and cultural factors are interconnected in a complex way. They have a reciprocal relationship and often compound each other. Progress in individual aspects, therefore, may well also have a positive effect on other vulnerability factors. A general improvement in school education, for instance, can be expected to help reduce poverty, facilitate the application of appropriate production methods and raise organizational abilities. This in turn can motivate people for prevention, thus generating a positive influence on the political factors through greater participation. 3.4 Impact and Threat of Climate Change The major impacts and threats of global warming are well-known. Recent increase in global temperature as already experienced intensity and extreme events, for example frequent occurrence of flood and intensity of heat wave. On the other hand global warming will increase melting water from glaciers and ice sheets which will cause sea level to rise and also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation respectively. This causes thermal expansion of the oceans. Climate change will have wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture, food security, human health, global ecosystems, biodiversity and coastal zones. Some of the impact and threat had already been experienced and if this continued in current way which will affect the global ecosystem in the following way. Impact Threats 1. Changes in rainfall pattern 1. Will lead to severe shortage of water and causes drought around the globe 2. Will increase average rainfall and causes severe flooding around the globe. 3. It will have unpleasant impact on agriculture and traditional subsistence-based agriculture. This becomes more vulnerable and difficult which will eventually affecting the economic well-being of the local famers. 2. Melting of glaciers 1. Many rivers and lakes formed by melting of glacier water will grow in size and causes flooding recently which pose threat to nearby villages but very soon when there will be no glacial melt, this causes them to dry up and spread drought. 2. If the melting of glaciers continues on the current rate, all Farmlands which depend on glacial water will dry up and it will lead up to scarcity of food. 3. Sea level will rise and entire communities living on coastal zone always pose threat from increasing sea water level. 4. Many animals, birds, and fish that depend on fresh melting water from glaciers for survival will either reduce in numbers or get wiped out over a period of time. 3. Change in regional temperature Change in climate patterns will cause shift in crop growing seasons which affects food security. Crops will tend to fail or become unbeneficial where conditions are currently marginal for their production but on the other hand crops may tend to grow successfully in other area where conditions are suitable and has become marginal for other crops. 2. Increase in temperature will speed up the life cycles of both the mosquito and the disease viruses. This will produce smaller adult mosquitoes to feed more often to develop an egg batch, which in turn increases the chances for disease transmission which will put more people at risk from diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. 3. Temperature increases will potentially accelerate rates of extinction for many habitats and species (up to 30% with a 2 ° C rise in temperature). It will also affect coral reefs, boreal, forests and mountain habitats. 4. Increasing sea levels 1. It will greater the risk of storm surge, inundation and wave damage to coastlines, particularly in small island states and countries with low lying deltas. 2. Fresh underground water on coastal lines will get polluted with salty sea water making it unfit for drinking or irrigation Who is most Vulnerable to natural hazard? 98% of those killed and affected by natural disasters come from developing countries, underlining the link between poverty and vulnerability to disaster. Rich countries have a far greater ability to reduce the effects of extreme weather events (such as floods and droughts) than developing countries. Proof of this can be found in statistics produced by the Red Cross, which reveal that 22.5 people die per reported disaster in highly developed nations, 145 die per disaster in nations of medium human development. By 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. (World Disaster report, 2001) Natural hazards are a part of life. But hazards only become disasters when peoples lives and livelihoods are swept away. The vulnerability of communities is growing due to human activities that lead to increased poverty, greater urban dens